The Rockets that Haven't Been Fired

Iran hasn't deployed its most powerful weapon. When will this dog bark?

What troubles me is that Iran has not used its biggest missiles (yet). Here's a rundown of what they haven't used: 1. Khorramshahr (also know as the Kheibar), a liquid-fueled missile. Range up to 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) with a payload around 1,500 kg (3,307 lb).

This rocket is much bigger and more powerful than Iraq's Scuds. It has about twice the payload of the German V2 of WWII and 1.75% of the explosive power of the biggest Scud. It's not clear if Israel's missile defence systems can stop these rockets.

Nor do we know whether the hypersonic Fattah rocket has been stopped by the Iron Dome. It comes in at fifteen times the speed of sound. (The’re more vulnerable when they’re being fired than at re-entry, and Israel has several layers to its missile defence systems.)

Rockets of this size fall from space at supersonic speeds. In London and Antwerp (the two main V2 target cities in 1944-45), the big rockets reached the edge of space and came in so fast that people could not see or hear them. Entire blocks just seemed to explode. The UK government first claimed they were gas explosions.

So why doesn’t Iran use its most powerful missiles to do serious damage to Israel? Is Iran sitting on big missiles so they have them available when they have a nuclear warhead? Or are they waiting until Israeli anti-missile ordnance is used up? Or fear using a missile that would destroy entire city blocks would cause Israel to retaliate with nuclear weapons?

We’ll have a clearer picture of whether this is just another Trump-Netanyahu screw-up or, far less likely, a success. Meanwhile, fill up your car. The oil companies love stories that justify price gouging. We're already seen 15% hikes in Ontario, and we'll see a lot more if Iran tries to close the Straits of Hormuz and choke the Persian Gulf. They don't have to succeed, just drive up insurance rates.

I don't know where this thing will go. So many unanswered questions. "Bunker Busters" might not have gone deep enough. The Iranians might have facilities that the US and Israel don't know about. They may have black market Russian nuclear material. Or God-knows-what. I don’t believe Iran will just absorb this humiliation, damage, and lost of senior people. It seems to me to be a shaky state, and it’s hard to sell a regime as blessed by God while letting yourself be walked over.

But you can be sure this crisis will be used to gouge North American petroleum consumers. And we really didn't need that right now, as we slide into recession. And it's more than likely that Trump and his morons have botched this. And that could be the least of it.